Linux market-share on Steam dropped 0.08% in December 2016

Linux user base in general is growing.That's for sure.But every single person in this base are not gaming.Even some of them don't know Steam.

Linux usage is growing in great pace,also gaming on Linux is growing.But not that fast compared Linux user base in total.

I'd say gaming contributes to Linux usage growth in a big way, so relative percentage of Linux gamers is probably higher than relative percentage of Windows gamers.


Last edited by Shmerl on 16 January 2017 at 10:28 pm UTC

Quoting: tuubi

Quoting: Purple Library GuyOne might say we shouldn't be sure of such a surge, but there's no reason to have no expectations of one. But stipulating no such surge, why should we expect a decline?

What decline? We're going in circles, but I still don't see why you'd expect every metric to grow linearly and in proportion to each other. There's just no good reason for this expectation.

I am sure, or rather I know Linux gaming is growing. Steam user base is also growing, and fast. These two might grow at different rates and those rates are not likely to be constant. Even in relation to each other.

We are indeed going in circles.
Why would they grow at different rates? Let's start from the simplest case: The PC population stays constant, the percentage of that population running Linux stays constant, but the percentage of that population using Steam grows. If the general role filled by those PCs for Linux and Windows is either the same, or different but in a way that does not itself shift as Steam use grows, one would expect Steam's expansion into Windows PCs and Linux PCs to happen at the same rate, and so if the Windows Steam population doubled, so would the Linux population.

Factors could exist that would make that not be the case. They would have to involve some change in the roles of either Windows PCs, Linux PCs or both during the period of Steam expansion.

Quoting: ShmerlFirst of all, I don't see the survey as even representing Steam picture correctly (why do you need the survey, if Steam has complete data no doubt?). But one factor can potentially be higher number of games that don't have Linux versions still. If we assume gaming market is growing, and only a minority of games have Linux releases, then may be non Linux segment has larger growth?

What? No. That doesn't make sense at all. Linux already had that problem at the beginning of the market growth, so it was baked into Linux's earlier numbers--in fact the problem was worse before. So that should either have zero impact or work in the other direction. Honestly, I'm tearing my hair out here; everyone's giving me explanations for why Linux might have small numbers at a snapshot in time, and telling me they're explanations for change over time. Those things are different!

Quoting: Purple Library Guy...one would expect Steam's expansion into Windows PCs and Linux PCs to happen at the same rate, and so if the Windows Steam population doubled, so would the Linux population.

This expectation is what I think is unfounded. There's just no basis for it. It's entirely possible that the vastly larger Windows population is currently taking up Steam more rapidly than Linux users. Or maybe the disproportionate change only happened during the Winter Sale.

Quoting: Purple Library GuyHonestly, I'm tearing my hair out here; everyone's giving me explanations for why Linux might have small numbers at a snapshot in time, and telling me they're explanations for change over time. Those things are different!

Please don't tear out your hair. This isn't such an important issue that we need to get emotionally invested. We'll see in time anyway.

We should keed buying and playing linux games from steam... that will make the difference in the future.

Quoting: tuubi

Quoting: Purple Library Guy...one would expect Steam's expansion into Windows PCs and Linux PCs to happen at the same rate, and so if the Windows Steam population doubled, so would the Linux population.

This expectation is what I think is unfounded. There's just no basis for it. It's entirely possible that the vastly larger Windows population is currently taking up Steam more rapidly than Linux users. Or maybe the disproportionate change only happened during the Winter Sale.

I'm not saying it's impossible for the Windows population to be taking up Steam more rapidly than Linux users (although the size of their population is completely irrelevant and a red herring).
But there is a simple, direct basis for the expectation of those rates of growth being similar: A desktop is a desktop and the population of users is the population of users. They are all part of the same market, they see the same ads or whatever--why should they be behaving differently?
Even if there is some systematic difference between the gaming tendencies of Linux users and Windows users, why should that difference itself be changing? Imagine Linux desktop users have a lower tendency to game, such that half as many Linux users per 10,000 desktops play games. Then, if Linux had 2% of the desktop market, it would not be unreasonable for Linux to be at 1% on Steam. But then, if Linux increased to 3% of the desktop market, one would expect Linux to rise to 1.5% on Steam.
Instead, we have apparently a long-term trend of in the neighbourhood of from 2% to 3% on the desktop (ish, vaguely--whatever the specifics, like maybe 1 and a half times as much as a couple years ago) and a simultaneous long-term trend of from 1% on the Steam survey some time back, down to about 0.8% now. Monthly shifts have generally been insignificant, but the long term trend has been downwards. For these two things to both be true, Linux users would have to be gaming at lower and lower rates compared to Windows users over this time period, or at least adopting Steam at lower and lower rates. Or all of Steam's growth would have to be coming from some particular population which includes a much lower percentage of Linux users.

But we're talking about a big shift here if we accept Steam's figures, of Linux users gaming on Steam a lot less, like half as much per capita, from Linux desktops being used for gaming maybe half as much as Windows ones (1% Steam/2% desktop), to Linux desktops being used for gaming about 1/4 as much as Windows ones (0.8% Steam/3.?% desktop), over the course of a couple of years. Would you not expect such a trend to be visible in some way? Is it not reasonable to expect some explanation for the shift to exist, especially at a time when all our information suggests Linux becoming far more viable for gaming, rather than less?

Or alternatively, one could conclude the Steam figures are bogus in some way. I've reserved judgement for a long time, but I am gradually coming to the conclusion that that is the simpler and less unlikely explanation.


Last edited by Purple Library Guy on 17 January 2017 at 6:09 pm UTC

@Purple Library Guy: Yes I know you expect Linux users to be taking up gaming and Steam at roughly the same rate that Windows users do. I do get your point. I don't agree on your conclusions, but I do understand what you mean. The steam figures could be bogus, or they could be fairly accurate. We haven't got the data to make that call. All we can do is speculate.

I stumbled upon this article about the growth on Steam, the data coming from the Steam Dev Days 2016 (didn't bother looking for an official URL for the slides):

http://boilingsteam.com/steam-dev-days-organic-growth-and-rising-asia/

The one feasible solution to this problem is regional growth differences. Assuming that the dominating markets w.r.t. growth have lower Linux market share, it is obvious that Linux shares on Steam drop overall.

We could now start to discuss which regions have more or less Linux market shares, but I don't know of anything beyond prejudice to back any claims.