Linux marketshare on Steam dropped again in October, as China takes a massive chunk of the market

The numbers don't make sense and are likely wrong. There's no other datapoints anywhere (outside of the survey) indicating a huge increase in Windows 7 use. In past surveys Windows 7 declined relative to Windows 10, so yes, this looks like a huge surge in reported users. It would be nice if Valve released the total user base in addition to the percentages. I haven't looked closely at the rest of the numbers, but I wonder if there's also a measurable shift in the average machine / processors and GPU. Will check. Note that this would represents somewhere in the order of an additional 20,000,000 PUBG players if it's accurate, in one month, and there's no evidence that the game has grown that much either online or via released statements.

(...)

If the Steam survey didn't count the hordes of Windows users in China, I reckon the Linux share could well be around 4% by now.

Actually, I took some time to calculate that using data from Steam survey and the proportions method (https://www.mathsisfun.com/algebra/proportions.html)

If users using Steam in Simplified Chinese are 56% of overall userbase (according to the survey), then 44% are non-Chinese users (I skipped users using Traditional Chinese, since they represent a tiny fraction).

Using proportions:

0.35 - 44
x - 100

Then x is 0.79 percent. That would be Linux share on non-Chinese markets.

But most of Linux users use Steam in English. English users are currently 21% of Steam userbase, according to the latest data. Then we can easily calculate:

0.35 - 21
x - 100

x is 1.6%. That is Linux share on English language market.


Last edited by hardpenguin on 2 Nov 2017 at 2:20 pm UTC

But most of Linux users use Steam in English.

I doubt this.

As hardpenguin pointed out below, it's a stunning 90%.


Last edited by Eike on 2 Nov 2017 at 3:20 pm UTC

But most of Linux users use Steam in English.

I doubt this.

You don't have to. We have the data:

But most of Linux users use Steam in English.

I doubt this.

I did as well, but then I checked which language my Steam install was. I use it daily and I didn't even realize it was in English. :)

No English is not my first language nor is it the language of my Ubuntu install.

(...)

If the Steam survey didn't count the hordes of Windows users in China, I reckon the Linux share could well be around 4% by now.

Actually, I took some time to calculate that using data from Steam survey and the proportions method (https://www.mathsisfun.com/algebra/proportions.html)

If users using Steam in Simplified Chinese are 56% of overall userbase (according to the survey), then 44% are non-Chinese users (I skipped users using Traditional Chinese, since they represent a tiny fraction).

Using proportions:

0.35 - 44
x - 100

Then x is 0.79 percent. That would be Linux share on non-Chinese markets.

But most of Linux users use Steam in English. English users are currently 21% of Steam userbase, according to the latest data. Then we can easily calculate:

0.35 - 21
x - 100

x is 1.6%. That is Linux share on English language market.

Your numbers are correct if you accept that there are no chinese linux users (which is almost true) and that 100% Linux steam users speak english (which is not so true).

My biggest problem of the montly results of Steam is that the Chinese users got to nearly a half of all users account, but if I see concurrent connected users stats, I don't see such increase in numbers. In fact (and what is more extrange), the peak of concurrent users didn't move from Western timezones. I mean, if there really are more users in Asia, why we didn't see a grow in concurrent users for prime time of eastern timezones? Definitely the biggest grow up comes from multi-account users...


Last edited by x_wing on 2 Nov 2017 at 2:51 pm UTC

My biggest problem of the montly results of Steam is that the Chinese users got to nearly a half of all users account, but if I see concurrent connected users stats, I don't see such increase in numbers. In fact (and what is more extrange), the peak of concurrent users didn't move from Western timezones. I mean, if there really are more users in Asia, why we didn't see a grow in concurrent users for prime time of eastern timezones? Definitely the biggest grow up comes from multi-account users...

Some people have formed a theory which states that a significant portion of the Chinese PUBG players get their accounts banned through either cheating or scamming and just setup new accounts. Each of those newly registered accounts would probably have a fairly high chance of being counted in the Steam survey. I am not sure how well that theory holds up but I guess it's something to consider.

Huh, I guess that also explains all the spam in the Steam forums that are either in Chinese or the username is in Chinese and the only game owned for those accounts is PUBG.


Last edited by Aimela on 2 Nov 2017 at 3:47 pm UTC

While the number of Chinese users is exploding on Steam, Gabe Newell has quietly moved into the top 100 rich list in the U.S

That's pretty amazing considering his company doesn't seem to finish off many of their projects :D

They do. Just many of us won't live long enough to see them completed.

This article makes a lot of sense and confirms what many of us suspected for a long time.

I never did believe the arguments that Linux Steam market share is low because of driver issues or not enough games or performance issues etc as others often say. Linux started off at 2% and drivers today are much better than they were in 2013 and we have lots more games including several AAA titles. Linux gaming has made huge strives since then and to go backwards in marketshare makes no sense, unless you count all the new Chinese users coming online.

If the Steam survey didn't count the hordes of Windows users in China, I reckon the Linux share could well be around 4% by now.

This. It just proves the Steam stats are inaccurate if they can change by 26% / millions of users at the drop of a hat.

Honestly , I don't care for stats anymore. I realize we are a small group and I realize that M$ maintains their monopoly by tolerating pirates and pushing aggressively at corporate.
Curios if their updates-as-a-service backfires and how long till users in other regions of the globe discover Linux.
In any case , I found freedom to do as I want with my OS. I am staying for good. Games or no (despite we have a lot already and wine can always add more)

that jump in windows 7 numbers and the decline of windows 10 made me chuckle, i guess windows 10 isn't quite as pirated as much as windows 7 in china these days :P

So, who is going to tell the software houses that they can either:
1) port their system to correct internationalization, have one big hell of problems, but also a big revenue to get chinese supported.
To be clear: the internationalization effort of Fortresscraft Evolved is taking almost a year now, and it is not finished. There are so many problems and new bugs if you even bother to try.
And you still have to translate (community job fortunately on FCE), and bigger titles need to do voice overs.
Steam always said: the revenue is big if you correctly translate an english game to chinese.
2) click on the button to build a linux version too.
3) why not both?
Anyway: chinese is a problematic market due to the language. Which chinese will you use, how will you represent and render the data? How will you change layout?
There are other standards in China too beside UTF-8, they already have 2 different coding standards. So it really is not easy. But it might be worth your while.

I think what annoys me about this news is the fact that most of the copies of Windows being used in China are pirated. Previous news stories estimate 90% of Windows in China is pirated. A few years ago, Steve Ballmer stated it being the case. It is clear that Chinese do not want to pay for software, probably because typical earnings are not great and probably because they can get away with it without fear of repercussions.

The thing is... They could be using Linux instead, and for FREE. And no WannaCry or other malware that has gone through Windows installs over there. Imagine the boost to Linux if all those Chinese had not been pirating...

What makes you think that Chinese Linux users would bother to pay for the games?

Answering your question: Anyone who pirates operating system software is just as likely to pirate games or application software. In the case of games which don't have an online multiplayer component, e.g. playing The Witcher 3, Skyrim, Dark Souls, then I'm sure that piracy is rife.

However, games which use a gamer id to login to an online multiplayer game, e.g. Overwatch, PUBG - Then the publishers can identify pirates and ban them. In these cases, I expect there are game purchases being made. Also noting that these are Steam statistics, so I expect the game has been bought (or the steam key acquired fraudulently) for the pirate to play it.

I think what annoys me about this news is the fact that most of the copies of Windows being used in China are pirated. Previous news stories estimate 90% of Windows in China is pirated. A few years ago, Steve Ballmer stated it being the case. It is clear that Chinese do not want to pay for software, probably because typical earnings are not great and probably because they can get away with it without fear of repercussions.

The thing is... They could be using Linux instead, and for FREE. And no WannaCry or other malware that has gone through Windows installs over there. Imagine the boost to Linux if all those Chinese had not been pirating...

What makes you think that Chinese Linux users would bother to pay for the games?

Answering your question: Anyone who pirates operating system software is just as likely to pirate games or application software. In the case of games which don't have an online multiplayer component, e.g. playing The Witcher 3, Skyrim, Dark Souls, then I'm sure that piracy is rife.

However, games which use a gamer id to login to an online multiplayer game, e.g. Overwatch, PUBG - Then the publishers can identify pirates and ban them. In these cases, I expect there are game purchases being made. Also noting that these are Steam statistics, so I expect the game has been bought (or the steam key acquired fraudulently) for the pirate to play it.

There's no reason someone who pirated Windows wouldn't have a legit Steam account with a few legally owned games on it. The world isn't that black and white.

There's no reason someone who pirated Windows wouldn't have a legit Steam account with a few legally owned games on it. The world isn't that black and white.

Here's some Black and White for you..

You play legitimately bought games on pirated Windows - you're a pirate.
You play pirated games on pirated Windows - you're a pirate.

You play legitimately bought games on free Linux - you're not a pirate.

There's no reason someone who pirated Windows wouldn't have a legit Steam account with a few legally owned games on it. The world isn't that black and white.

Here's some Black and White for you..

You play legitimately bought games on pirated Windows - you're a pirate.
You play pirated games on pirated Windows - you're a pirate.

You play legitimately bought games on free Linux - you're not a pirate.

Yeah, but my point is that you seemed to imply with your last comment that pirates don't count towards Steam statistics which is just plain wrong.

Yeah, but my point is that you seemed to imply with your last comment that pirates don't count towards Steam statistics which is just plain wrong.

No, my implication was that someone who pirates will potentially do so, whenever possible. Agreeing with you that people can selectively pirate software, i.e. buy some stuff and pirate other stuff. However, if the person is in Steam statistics, it probably means they bought the game on Steam or acquired a steam key some other way, possibly fraudulently.

However, if the person is in Steam statistics, it probably means they bought the game on Steam or acquired a steam key some other way, possibly fraudulently.

Except, all you need to appear in the statistics is a FREE Steam account and the FREE Steam client. You don't need to own any games. Also, there are some really popular free-to-play games on Steam such as DOTA2 which you can just install and play right away without paying a single cent.

If you were to pirate a game, it will run outside of Steam, so pirates don't get banned from Steam. Anything you run from within Steam is going to be legit, except if you are the victim of key fraud.

@Brisse He's not saying that the statistics somehow show pirates, he's simply saying that large portion of Chinese Windows users use pirated Windows and that pirates are going to pirate, so don't expect money flooding because of some statistic.