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Using a similar method to the one made by user dmantione who submitted this article to us back in May of 2016, which looked at peak users. A user on reddit has taken a look at the Linux market share against Valve's reported daily active users, using data they gave out during a recent presentation.
Here's the image it references (credit):
So we have about 12 million in April 2014, 25 million in April 2016 and 42 million in April 2018. Using the figures for the Steam market share given out by the Hardware Survey then, we get:
- April 2014 - Linux 1.26% - 151,200
- April 2016 - Linux 0.90% - 225,000
- April 2018 - Linux 0.55% - 231,000
That's daily active Linux users, not overall Linux users.
While this should of course be taken with a pinch of salt, it's still quite interesting if it's even remotely close to what's happening. While it has increased going by that data, it does look like the Linux user base on Steam is close to stagnating as growth has slowed down quite a lot in more recent years.
The Hardware Survey from August 2017 up until April 2018 had a counting flaw, which had cyber cafes using Windows 7 in Asia being over-counted. Valve say they fixed it, so it should mean the April 2018 number is actually correct.
Note: We originally said the counting flaw might have affected it, this was wrong (since it's fixed and we're using the overall number) and we have corrected the text—blame a lack of coffee and hot weather.
Article taken from GamingOnLinux.com.
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The comments on this article are closed.
QuoteHowever, digging even a little deeper, we need to also take into account that the Hardware Survey from August 2017 up until April 2018 had a counting flaw, which had cyber cafes using Windows 7 in Asia being over-counted. So it's probable the Linux numbers between those dates were actually higher, which would partially explain why the increase is so much smaller in later years but it likely would still be a smaller increase compared to previous years.I wonder if Microsoft will extending the Windows 7 EOL date.
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Quoting: tonRI wonder if Microsoft will extending the Windows 7 EOL date.
I think they will force people to Windows 10.
6 Likes, Who?
That reddit user here. Unfortunately I don't think that counting flaw affected the data that was used for the periods used, so no extra probable Linux users got missed.
The last survey results published with that flaw were for March 2018. The results for April were published in early May along with the explanation that cyber cafe customers were overcounted. Going from the March to April survey results saw Linux jumping from 0.33% to 0.55% and Simplified Chinese dropping from 52.24% to 30.35%.
So that corrected data should also have been available for the presentation.
Last edited by anth on 9 July 2018 at 10:18 am UTC
The last survey results published with that flaw were for March 2018. The results for April were published in early May along with the explanation that cyber cafe customers were overcounted. Going from the March to April survey results saw Linux jumping from 0.33% to 0.55% and Simplified Chinese dropping from 52.24% to 30.35%.
So that corrected data should also have been available for the presentation.
Last edited by anth on 9 July 2018 at 10:18 am UTC
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From 225k to 231k is 2.7%. Considering that one of the numbers comes from the Steam surveys, I don't think this is statistically significant (and no, I will not do the math :P ). I still think it is approximately stable over the past two years with maybe a slight growth. That probably means that most Linux users that will accept Steam as a gaming platform are using it now and that current growth is more based on "new" Linux users. This growth is likely much slower than that of the Steam platform itself.
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Quoting: anthThat reddit user here. Unfortunately I don't think that counting flaw affected the data that was used for the periods used, so no extra probable Linux users got missed.Yup, I've adjusted the wording to make that clear. I will blame the lack of coffee :)
The last survey results published with that flaw were for March 2018. The results for April were published in early May along with the explanation that cyber cafe customers were overcounted. Going from the March to April survey results saw Linux jumping from 0.33% to 0.55% and Simplified Chinese dropping from 52.24% to 30.35%.
So that corrected data should also have been available for the presentation.
2 Likes, Who?
Oh dear, when I see these numbers, I'm so thankful that we get any Linux versions at all.
I really hope we can give Devs the feeling it is worth it, by supporting them, thanking them and spreading out the word of their games.
I really hope we can give Devs the feeling it is worth it, by supporting them, thanking them and spreading out the word of their games.
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Luke_Nukem Jul 9, 2018
If Linux gamer growth had kept pace with Windows growth then percentage wouldn't have gone down. This does show that growth hadn't reversed at least.
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Literally stagnation for two years and the headline is 'The amount of Linux users on Steam has increased when going by daily active users'. So you're really doing this on purpose, are you?
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Now that wine is getting ready to play even demanding AAA Windows games with acceptable FPS thanks to DXVK, for example, I am considering using a Windows Steam client under Wine.
Unfortunately I will then be counted as a Windows user and not as a Linux user in a hardware survey.
Too bad. :(
Unfortunately I will then be counted as a Windows user and not as a Linux user in a hardware survey.
Too bad. :(
1 Likes, Who?
Quoting: muellLiterally stagnation for two years and the headline is 'The amount of Linux users on Steam has increased when going by daily active users'. So you're really doing this on purpose, are you?It´s not literal stagnation. The absolute number of players has increased. Although the increase is not overwhelming.
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The only way to get even remotely close to true values is to make an awesome Linux exclusive game, release it on Steam for free and watch the install / users playing numbers. It has to be new and fresh to benefit on the usual hype Windows titles get. It has to be ranked overwhelmingly positive to really lure people. It has to be free to avoid restricting anyone from trying it out. It has to be through Steam to count real users without actually being a spyware and relevant to all of those discussions we're having here so often. I refuse to speculate on the subject (or read further speculations) before that.
It means I might never again allow myself to talk about Linux market share on Steam. I'm surprisingly okay with that.
It means I might never again allow myself to talk about Linux market share on Steam. I'm surprisingly okay with that.
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One thing these calculations don't take into account is whether the amount of Linux users has increased in 'real terms'; that is, either normalised against the increase in population, or the increase in purchasing price power over time.
Basically, has the increase in Linux users over time kept up with the increases in costs required to port games to that platform? I would suggest that it hasn't, and the proof is that the number of "big" titles we see has slowed down markedly since the Valve push a few years ago.
Personally, I'm not particularly fazed by this as I think things like Wine/DXVK/Lutris are becoming attractive enough for a lot of Windows users who are either interested in Linux or dislike Windows enough to make the switch, which will increase our market share. We also know Valve is still investing in the Linux ecosystem, and might be planning something to give the platform a push in the future.
The barrier to entry to switch to Linux for gaming is lower than ever before; I think we're still in a good spot all things considered.
Basically, has the increase in Linux users over time kept up with the increases in costs required to port games to that platform? I would suggest that it hasn't, and the proof is that the number of "big" titles we see has slowed down markedly since the Valve push a few years ago.
Personally, I'm not particularly fazed by this as I think things like Wine/DXVK/Lutris are becoming attractive enough for a lot of Windows users who are either interested in Linux or dislike Windows enough to make the switch, which will increase our market share. We also know Valve is still investing in the Linux ecosystem, and might be planning something to give the platform a push in the future.
The barrier to entry to switch to Linux for gaming is lower than ever before; I think we're still in a good spot all things considered.
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Quoting: KuJoAs I said on reddit (hello again swick, my biggest fan). It's a literal fact that 151 to 231 is an increase. The title is factual for the data.Quoting: muellLiterally stagnation for two years and the headline is 'The amount of Linux users on Steam has increased when going by daily active users'. So you're really doing this on purpose, are you?It´s not literal stagnation. The absolute number of players has increased. Although the increase is not overwhelming.
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Quoting: Luke_NukemIf Linux gamer growth had kept pace with Windows growth then percentage wouldn't have gone down. This does show that growth hadn't reversed at least.
One of the main reason, that Windows based user grew so much, is that Steam started selling in China.
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GustyGhost Jul 9, 2018
Quoting: GuestJust to add, that is just Steam. We're still not counting Linux users from GOG, Itch, and Humble Store.
For some reason I cannot favorite (or have I been banned from "liking" comments?) so: [Liked]
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Quoting: GustyGhostWe dont have a feature to ban people from liking stuff, it's usually an issue with privacy plugins.Quoting: GuestJust to add, that is just Steam. We're still not counting Linux users from GOG, Itch, and Humble Store.
For some reason I cannot favorite (or have I been banned from "liking" comments?) so: [Liked]
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GustyGhost Jul 9, 2018
Quoting: liamdaweWe dont have a feature to ban people from liking stuff, it's usually an issue with privacy plugins.
Confirmed. It seems the page doesn't agree me blocking facebook, youtube and twitter. It's no problem really, I will just forego the feature.
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Quoting: GustyGhostIt's not really an essential feature anyway :)Quoting: liamdaweWe dont have a feature to ban people from liking stuff, it's usually an issue with privacy plugins.
Confirmed. It seems the page doesn't agree me blocking facebook, youtube and twitter. It's no problem really, I will just forego the feature.
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Interesting. I wonder how many of these 230.000 active users would have to buy a title like Rise of the Tomb Raider to call it a financial success? May be 50.000?
Assuming that an average user would buy a full-price title every 4 or 6 month, having 3 or 4 Feral ports a year seems just about fine for the current Linux user base. Having more title seems not feasible.
Last edited by jens on 9 July 2018 at 9:59 pm UTC
Assuming that an average user would buy a full-price title every 4 or 6 month, having 3 or 4 Feral ports a year seems just about fine for the current Linux user base. Having more title seems not feasible.
Last edited by jens on 9 July 2018 at 9:59 pm UTC
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I don't think daily active users mean too much when it comes to active users in general. There are plenty of users on all platforms who play a few days a week, or even a few times a month who should be considered active, but doesn't contribute much to the average daily active users.
I wonder if we can use this older ratio of ~67:33 monthly active players to daily active users. If we can then we get about 304,000(2014), 456,000(2016), 469,000(2018) active users, but this assumes we have the same usage pattern as in 2017.
I wonder if we can use this older ratio of ~67:33 monthly active players to daily active users. If we can then we get about 304,000(2014), 456,000(2016), 469,000(2018) active users, but this assumes we have the same usage pattern as in 2017.
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