Linux remains above macOS on the Steam Survey for January 2024

I don't want to predict, nor did I say so.

That's what fitting the data to a curve is.

I want to describe what has happened.

That's what the trend line does.

Which you already know because of your super statistical analysis skills, obviously.

Should you wish to examine the positive trend line for any range of the data, you already can. Slapping an arbitrary curve onto the data is pure fappery.

I'm sure you are both old enough to understand internet arguments like this don't get anywhere. Can we de-escalate please?

CatKiller is right that fitting a curve to the data is dangerous in that you are claiming that's the function the data is following, but it may not be.

Eike is also right because their claim is exactly the same thing! That the linear fit here is wrong, is exactly the same argument CatKiller has, any fit can be wrong.

So either don't fit anything, or if you do, I tend to agree with Eike that a line is definitely not the right fit as it ignores a major event point in the history.

It's like making a trend line on global temperature since 5000 years ago and make it look like global warming isn't happening. The industrial revolution happened and that changed the trend.

So my suggestion is, forget the trend before Steam Deck! The extrapolation of that trend is a hypothetical that's never happening, nor does the "what if" matter. Instead, if you have to fit a curve, fit one with the data from after the release of SD only, as the data from before does not correlate with it, and it presents a more meaningful prediction of what the future may look like.

Edit: lol, looks like you sorted things out while I was typing this


Last edited by ShabbyX on 2 February 2024 at 7:58 pm UTC

Now now kids, let's keep it cool.

Either way right now, there's simply no plugin available I can see for Chart JS to add a different type. For now, it serves the simple purpose of showing number go up or down over existing data.

Have upgraded Chart JS anyway, and now I have a new plugin added to enable showing special data points that you might spot...

I knew the Linux Marketing Department utilising penguin sex would help boost Linux numbers......

Phillip Island's little penguin colony passes 40,000 as climate change leads to more mating

Either way right now, there's simply no plugin available I can see for Chart JS to add a different type. For now, it serves the simple purpose of showing number go up or down over existing data.

Have upgraded Chart JS anyway, and now I have a new plugin added to enable showing special data points that you might spot...

Can we start the trend line at a different point (without hiding the actual data before, which still is interesting)? I'd use like July 15, 2021, announcement of Steam Deck, which clearly changed things.

Yay! Party! 🎉

(Honestly, I just care a bit - my computers run aprx 20 years on Linux ..)

Either way right now, there's simply no plugin available I can see for Chart JS to add a different type. For now, it serves the simple purpose of showing number go up or down over existing data.

Have upgraded Chart JS anyway, and now I have a new plugin added to enable showing special data points that you might spot...

Can we start the trend line at a different point (without hiding the actual data before, which still is interesting)? I'd use like July 15, 2021, announcement of Steam Deck, which clearly changed things.

No plans to do that atm, but you can simply pick the start date in the dropdown box and you get the sameish effect.

My take on some of the arguments here:

1. Chromebooks are pretty much an US thing. I know no one who owns a Chromebook here in Germany and when I looked for their prices, I know why. You get a pretty good Business Laptop for the price of a cheap tablet with a bad keyboard.

2. Not so sure about the Appstore. I can see that for single player titles, but for multiplayer? I really don't know. My guess is Apple Users tend to prefer console gaming.

Chromebooks are quite popular to hand out in schools here in Sweden.

Yes, they exist and are sold. I know that. Still, people living in certain regions might overestimate their impact. While around 30% of Laptops in the US are Chromebooks, it's 2% in Europe and close to zero in Asia. Current installations don't really matter either, since most of them are made to handle not much more then a browser. Yes, as Google opens up ChromeOS, beefier Chromebooks are sure to come, but chances they'll be popular here in Europe are much worse then in the US, where they are actually a trademark.

Which is why I mentioned that it was regional just like you mentioned the state in Germany. Over here Chromebooks have about 10% of the total computer market and is above Apple.

. After all, as we Linux users all know, hunting the web for programs and downloading installers is the silliest thing ever.

no, its not.
it prevent OS vendor from abusing their customers with an monopoly using an biased store.
like promoting first party browsers (Chrome, edge, safari) instead of the best ones.

not to mention the repositories of the linux distros are serious lacking softwares that often exist for linux.
for example, look how many years took then to have something like godot, you can develop entire games in this meantime.

The linear approximation to the curve really needs to be split into two parts! (somewhere in 2021?)

... or the software could come up with something non-linear?

Why?

Because the linear approximation systematically overestimates all of the oldest points and underestimates all of the youngest points (except a single one we would attribute to some measurement error, probably located in the far east). The line doesn't fit, and this not in a "jumpy" way (as to be to be expected), but in a systematical way. The curve to be approximated isn't linear, at least not over the whole time.

So we could either try two linear curves, or some curve with a slope (slightly) increasing over time.

i think we can try to predict the next few months with a few different approachs, then keep the one who was better able to predict the trends

My take on some of the arguments here:

1. Chromebooks are pretty much an US thing. I know no one who owns a Chromebook here in Germany and when I looked for their prices, I know why. You get a pretty good Business Laptop for the price of a cheap tablet with a bad keyboard.

2. Not so sure about the Appstore. I can see that for single player titles, but for multiplayer? I really don't know. My guess is Apple Users tend to prefer console gaming.

Chromebooks are quite popular to hand out in schools here in Sweden.

Yes, they exist and are sold. I know that. Still, people living in certain regions might overestimate their impact. While around 30% of Laptops in the US are Chromebooks, it's 2% in Europe and close to zero in Asia. Current installations don't really matter either, since most of them are made to handle not much more then a browser. Yes, as Google opens up ChromeOS, beefier Chromebooks are sure to come, but chances they'll be popular here in Europe are much worse then in the US, where they are actually a trademark.

Which is why I mentioned that it was regional just like you mentioned the state in Germany. Over here Chromebooks have about 10% of the total computer market and is above Apple.

Wow! I never noticed Sweden had such a huge ChromeOS percentage. Even statcounter is able to track similar numbers. MacOS and ChromeOS must certainly be in a real slug fest when it comes for 2nd place in the Swedish market. The real numbers month over month must be wild. In ten years when all those students are out of school and in the workforce, ChromeOS is going to explode.


Last edited by Highball on 3 February 2024 at 8:27 am UTC

My take on some of the arguments here:

1. Chromebooks are pretty much an US thing. I know no one who owns a Chromebook here in Germany and when I looked for their prices, I know why. You get a pretty good Business Laptop for the price of a cheap tablet with a bad keyboard.

Which is why I mentioned that it was regional just like you mentioned the state in Germany. Over here Chromebooks have about 10% of the total computer market and is above Apple.

The only place I've seen a Chromebook in Australia is on display at JB-HI-FI. I don't know anyone with one and I've never heard about someone having one in Australia.

According to statcounter, the market share is at 0.51%...it's lower than Linux!

Australia also has a ridiculously high macOS market share. It was at 32% in October, and that sounds about right. Macbooks are everywhere! It's completely eating into Windows' market share.

Want to see a terrifying statistic? iPhones account for 60% of the market in Australia according to Statcounter. That's 30% higher than the worldwide statistic. I absolutely believe it.

Australia really likes Apple products. I'm kinda interested to see what the breakdown would be on Steam in Australia...

I have literally said that many times yet nobody listens here...
Mac gaming is moving to Mac App Store.

Is there any evidence for this, though? I can imagine that Apple Arcade might be a "hit" in terms of theoretical user numbers, because many people will get it as part of their Apple One bundle. But it's hard to find a paid game on the Mac App Store that reaches even 100 reviews. One of the top games, Stray, comes close in the US (whoohoo): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/stray/id6451498949?mt=12

I actually like Apple things and the MAS (sandboxing!), but all the Apple fans I know either have a Switch for gaming, or a Quest 3, or a separate gaming PC.

In ten years when all those students are out of school and in the workforce, ChromeOS is going to explode.

To be honest, I haven't used ChromeOS before, but what lock-in does it have besides the Google account that doesn't really matter for work? If someone knows how to use ChromeOS, then they can work with any other operating system as well.

I think the number of reviews deosnt say anything. I never review stuff anywhere nor any of my friends yet many (20+ according to Game Center Achievements) have bought RE4 and Deathstranding and actively playing it.

The best source is developers I guess, but someone would have to ask them.

I think the number of reviews deosnt say anything.

https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/what-steam-review-count-tells-us

The particular demographics of the Apple Arcade compared to Steam, how easy it is to write a review, and how encouraged it is to write a review, will all affect the specific ratio of reviews to sales, but it's extremely likely that there is a ratio even if we don't know exactly what it is.