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Quoting: PlayingOnLinuxphoneThere is no real exponential trend. I did the math some hours ago and there was a linear trend before Steam Deck release, than an accelerated trend between Steam Deck Release and Win10 EOL and a 5.5 times increase after Win10 EOL. Steam Deck OLED did not change the linear trend. November and December 2025 had exactly the same 5.5 times increase as the whole 2026 until April. January and February were Chinese New Year, March somehow bad data, so these should be ignored.

If it would be a real exponential curve, March data would be real and April even above that. So it would be better to use 3 linear lines, clamped between those relevant dates.

PS: If it is linear we will see on Windows 10 extended support end of life. It should be around 6%. It should be far above 6% if it is exponential.

Perhaps, you are correct, you certainly seem to have a point. Not bad news anyways, as the current linear trend still looks insanely optimistic, comparing to GoL trend line.
Regardless of exact growth pattern, there are two things I care.
1. Does it grow at all? Yes it does, good.
2. Does it grow faster than before? Looks like it does.

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Quoting: mattaraxiaIt's really wild. 10% by ~2030 seems just about inevitable now.

Even as someone who's used Linux for literally decades now, I'd have never thought this would be such a thing.

10% by 2027

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Quoting: Cley_Faye

Quoting: BrandonGeneNot being open source (and especially being based on Unity) makes this almost DoA, doesn't it?...some of those features are pretty neat, but that seems like a very odd choice in today's emulation landscape.

Really? How many games are people running that are closed source? I'm not gonna say "all of them", but unless we're talking about niche gamers, I'd say the vast majority of them are.
I'd rather have things opensource, but it's not like I'm putting all my personal documents in there. It's an emulator.

It is more that all the other big active and currently matained SNES emulators and cores these days are open source, so releasing a closed one is a bit silly at this point in time, work with the community and not against it, unless your planning on monetizing it at some point.

Edit: Just realised the Android (and likely iOS version when it is out) are pay so this is likely the reason for the closed source so others can't just take there code and release apps on those stores. Don't have a problem with that, but just come out and say it. Tried it, don't really like it that much, will keep using bsnes.

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Awesome!

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Not sure what you are trying to say. Denoising graphs are done to make it easier to read. GamingOnLinux does this, I chose another form, because I think it is necessary to read the actual growth of the half year and the prediction of the next months.
That I argued so much has nothing to do with science or overthinking, but with people that say I am wrong, so I had to deliver more arguments that I am not wrong (future prediction excluded - nobody can be sure about).

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Quoting: Avehicle7887I think something broke in this Wine release. Guild Wars 1 launches but crashes randomly after about 20mins. Happened twice, reverted to Wine 11.7, works fine for hours. Didn't have the issue prior to 11.8.

This morning went to play Legacy of Kain Defiance Remastered - crashes on launch. Reverted to 11.7 and game works fine again. Both games are running into their own separate prefix.

I have other games but I only tried the 2 mentioned above.

yeah regressions is a true story, in my case happend with test drive unlimited 2, transformers devastation and others

😀

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People coming to this site aren't data scientists looking to denoise a graph, they just want to know if Linux gaming is becoming more popular. You're overthinking it. Statistics are meant to represent information to a target audience in a way that's useful to them, not to be an arbiter of the "correct" way of measuring things.

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Quoting: NaibIt's following a sigmoidal pattern

As data shows, clearly not. I mean you can give me the formula for a smooth sigmoidal that fits into a 5.6 times increase from one month to another. That 5.6 times is steady for already 7 months. Your mistake is to not take the events into account and so you would over-simply what actually is happening.

Common growth is like accelerating a vehicle. It starts slow, will accelerate faster in the mid and slows down acceleration at the end again. But what happens with an event? A crash instantly slows down or increases the speed depending on the impact point and direction. And that was happening with Steam Deck and Win10 EOL as the data shows.

That being said, I also don't belief it will always stay a flat line. It can change at any point in the future. In my opinion it is just the best way to interpret (denoise) the current graph.

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Quoting: Liam DaweOkay, well if you don't like them, toggle them off when you visit the page as you can do that now 👍

Like I said, I understand why you put it there. No worries. And, yeah, being able to turn it off was a great move.

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Okay, well if you don't like them, toggle them off when you visit the page as you can do that now 👍

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Quoting: Liam DaweI don’t get the fuss against it.

You can literally always find a polynomial that goes exactly through every point. You can literally always find a sine function that goes through every point.

Should you be plotting your points against some function your model needs explanatory power for why "percentage of Steam users running Linux" should be some factor of e raised to the power of "number of days since 2017," say, or "the tangent of days since 2017," or "the inverse of 1 plus e to the power of the negative of the number of days since 2017." Or whatever bullshit function looks a bit like it.

"Tee-hee I like de dot-to-dots" is meaningless gibberish.

That's why.

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Quoting: AnonymousBroccoliDoes anyone have good experience with VRR and/or HDR (games and video) in Fedora KDE? I'm looking for a different distro for a new AMD desktop.

I've used a docked Steam Deck occasionally, but obviously that's not especially capable for higher-end gaming. I assume I'd want to stick somewhat close to the SteamOS mould, and the work Valve have put into. . . is it mainly Plasma and Wayland?

I've used Mint Cinnamon a fair bit in a pretty casual way, and like the user experience. But I don't think they focus all that hard on modern display or gaming features.

I was considering Bazzite for a while. I briefly used Bazzite GNOME on a Steam Deck LCD (KDE wouldn't install), and didn't have a great time with it. Some of their dev team shenanigans have been a bit off-putting too.

Works great for me for AMD CPU/GPU with an OLED HDR VRR display (I haven’t updated my OS/hardware, don’t pay attention to my bazzite badge I’m back on Fedora Desktop Edition (KDE))

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The entire point is to cut through the sampling noise. Linear works to a point then the divergence becomes apparent.
Some form of exponent is then key to track it. At some point this will fail and a logistic is needed.

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I don’t get the fuss against it. People like different ways of looking at data 🤷‍♂️

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I don't get the fuss about trend lines. The problem I have with that is that slapping a trend line on the data is assuming that there is one function driving the shape of the actual curve that stays more or less the same throughout. While I am not a statistics person at all, to me this screams "oversimplification". If you assume instead that there are several factors at play on how the Linux share develops, factors that may interact with one another, that become relevant and possibly irrelevant again at arbitrary points of time, I don't see how a simple trend line is supposed to appropriately model all of that.

I mean, do you plot a person's height from age 0 to 13 and then predict how tall they are when they reach age 90? So what are those of you expecting from a trend line to do for you? Predict how unknown future events impact the development? Because in all likelihood, there will be such events. Of course you can say, "If the Linux share develops like it has, X will happen in Y years", but what purpose does that serve?

I don't mean to rage bait anyone or discredit anyone's opinion on that matter, I'm honestly curious what you expect of a trend line to do for you. All I can see it doing for me is separating noise from the signal, but that isn't as easy as finding a curve that fits nicely, either. At least I don't expect it to be.

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Great, the exponential trend line follows the data a lot better. It's more representative than the linear one.

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I don't know who Balatro is, but I love chess. If it ever comes to GOG I will probably check it out.

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Quoting: EWGSo wait, I don't get it. Are they just updating the ISO to ship with the latest kernel that's regularly available to update to? So, basically, during install it'll have broader and better support for hardware depending on the kernel? Is that it?

Yes and I think that's a good idea. Since people who already have installed it probably don't need newer Kernels. But new users might need it. This makes perfect sense.

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Quoting: CaldathrasWhy change their time-tested processes?

Because "The Times They Are a-Changin'"?

Sorry, couldn’t resist 😅

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Quoting: Naib2030 for 10% is still on track.

Great. When do we reach 105% then?

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Quoting: PlayingOnLinuxphoneSince people don't trust me, I also draw some lines:

External Media: You need to be logged in to view this.

Everyone can extrapolate the line themselves.

It's following a sigmoidal pattern not a heaviside linear ... Heaviside linear is means to approximate a sigmoidal

It can only ever follow a sigmoidal and the is determining the steady state value (it won't be 100%... ) and the peak acceleration/adoption point.

I pasted a few sigmoidal fits for the last few updates and I expected a slight correction this month and it doesn't do anything to the general fit. 2030 for 10% is still on track.

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I think something broke in this Wine release. Guild Wars 1 launches but crashes randomly after about 20mins. Happened twice, reverted to Wine 11.7, works fine for hours. Didn't have the issue prior to 11.8.

This morning went to play Legacy of Kain Defiance Remastered - crashes on launch. Reverted to 11.7 and game works fine again. Both games are running into their own separate prefix.

I have other games but I only tried the 2 mentioned above.

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Quoting: jjaksicSteam Survey is useless garbage. It's not humanly possible to do polling and statistics any worse than this. Please ignore it, it's just worthless random noise junk not worth anyone's 2 seconds of attention (except maybe to teach a toddler how not to do statistics).

You always this cheery or is it your birthday which caused you to just glow with joy and spread some love?

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Quoting: elmapulmost of people arent techy savy enough to install another OS, we are probably looking at the tech savy people installing linux on their machines right now, but soon we will enter the average joe territory.

Most people are able to search Steam on internet, download installer, install, create an account, login, buy a game, download the game and actually play the game. We are not speaking about grandpa who never touched a PC before or who just knows how to open the news paper on web browser. We are speaking about people that already have enough knowledge to be comfortable with such tasks. Those people are also able to search for tutorials on YouTube while Linux installers are easy these days.

And even in case people don't know how to install it themselves. As more people already switched as more people are also able to help friends and family to switch and also as more people getting interested in Linux. There are even Linux install parties, especially made for people who cannot deal with it themselves, including after installation support. I also expect more PC makers jump onto the Linux preinstalled train at some point.

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Steam Survey is useless garbage. It's not humanly possible to do polling and statistics any worse than this. Please ignore it, it's just worthless random noise junk not worth anyone's 2 seconds of attention (except maybe to teach a toddler how not to do statistics).

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Quoting: PlayingOnLinuxphone

Quoting: SakuretsuWe're probably not going to see such big jumps frequently.

That jump is already done. We are on a 3% per year rate right now. 2 years multiplied with 3% = 6% plus 3.5% of last year December = 9.5%. No further jump or acceleration, just continuing growth of last 6 months, which is very likely considering 25% of Win10 users and that Win11 growths slower than Linux does. I did not even include Steam Machine and VR or EOL#2 in this math.

And also consider this: until now Linux never had a slow down in growth. That will happen at some point, but there is no sign it will happen in 2026/2027.

most of people arent techy savy enough to install another OS, we are probably looking at the tech savy people installing linux on their machines right now, but soon we will enter the average joe territory.

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Quoting: PlayingOnLinuxphoneThere is no real exponential trend. I did the math some hours ago and there was a linear trend before Steam Deck release, than an accelerated trend between Steam Deck Release and Win10 EOL and a 5.5 times increase after Win10 EOL. Steam Deck OLED did not change the linear trend. November and December 2025 had exactly the same 5.5 times increase as the whole 2026 until April. January and February were Chinese New Year, March somehow bad data, so these should be ignored.

If it would be a real exponential curve, March data would be real and April even above that. So it would be better to use 3 linear lines, clamped between those relevant dates.

PS: If it is linear we will see on Windows 10 extended support end of life. It should be around 6%. It should be far above 6% if it is exponential.

if we want an accurate trend line, it should be able to predict the future with an good precision.

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Quoting: eggroleMore "normies" using it might lead to more "dumbed down" developments. Normies don't care about the unix philosophy or FOSS, they want it to "just work".

Meh. Engineers don't care about FOSS either. I remember when the Free Software Foundation was a big deal. I remember when people seriously avoided more permissive licenses in favour of the GPL for the sake of keeping software Free. I remember when people worried about "Tivoization" and cloud stuff making the openness of the source irrelevant and invented the AGPL in an attempt to deal with it, and this was taken seriously. It wasn't normies that changed that, it was corporate programmers.

And in any case, I personally am a "normie" in terms of whether I can or care to program, mess with the guts of the system etc., and I care more about FOSS than most programmers here.

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Since April 7th I have been playing a fair amount of Skull Horde by 8BitSkull. It is an excellent game and I have found it a fantastic match for my LCD Steam Deck. Highly recommended if you like horde survival games. Skull Horde is rated as "Playable" on the Steam Deck. The Steam Compatibility dialog states: "Some in-game text is small and may be difficult to read." I have not encountered any problems reading the text that I am being exposed to while playing the game. Perhaps I am just not in the correct areas of the game; but after over twenty hours of playtime, I am very curious to discover where this unreadable text is located.

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That's one of my concerns with the recent push for immutable distros. They're an interesting idea but this notion that they "fix" linux for new users I think is just leading down a poorly defined path. They're only easier when they work. When they don't they're actually harder to fix because they deliberately obfuscate all the stuff you learn with regular builds. "Oh you can just roll back to when it worked", but then users never learn why it didn't work.
We're already seeing that smartphones have led gen z/alpha to be less tech literate than even gen x.

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