I decided to write down some thoughts on Steam Machines, and Linux Gaming in general as I've seen quite a few articles on other publications about the imminent demise of Steam Machines and Linux Gaming that are rammed full of annoyances from writers who seem to want it to fail.
Let's get this straight, the Streaming feature of Steam and SteamOS is not the main aim of Steam Machines, but it is a complementary feature designed to help Windows gamers who can't get their entire catalogue on SteamOS right away. I've seen some writers mention the Streaming feature as if that is what SteamOS was mainly designed for, but it’s the tip of the iceberg. It’s certainly a nice feature, but there’s a lot more to Steam Machines.
Steam Machines
The main problem right now is the watered-down term "Steam Machine" thanks to the hardware manufacturers that jumped-ship early, and they released what would have been a SteamOS machine as a customized Windows machine. We can't blame them due to how long Valve has taken, and it certainly hasn't helped our cause. This doesn't mean Steam Machines will fail as soon as they arrive though, but if they do fail, we will still be fine.
It has always been my opinion that SteamOS & Steam Machines were never going to be an overnight success, and that's as simple as I can put it. They haven't even been released, but that hasn't stopped a tsunami of people claiming it's already dead!
Like all things Valve, they are taking their time, and the end results should be good for all of us.
SteamOS and Steam Machines are complementary to Linux Gaming, but they aren't Linux Gaming. Either way, Linux Gaming is strong, and will continue being strong, and here’s why.
Let's look at the games
Look at how many games Linux/SteamOS now has on Steam alone (946 going by Steam's own counter), and you have to remember this is before any official Steam Machine has ever been released. We have many more games due to be released soon, and tons more in development for our platform, it isn’t about to stop or slow down. If anything, the amount of ports we are getting is speeding up, and our many many pages of news can attest to that.
That’s just a number though, and some of the games (being honest here) are terrible mobile ports placed onto Steam with no additions, poor controls, and this leads into the next part.
We haven't had developers like Aspyr Media and Feral Interactive support us for very long, and with their commitment to our platform with their current catalogue and teased future games, we still have a lot of higher-budget games to look forward to. For the short time they have supported our platform we have already gained some massive games, and they haven’t even been supporting us for a year yet. Both of their first Linux games came to us last summer, so that’s a bit premature to call Linux/SteamOS gaming dead or dying when in the last part of 2014 we gained some huge releases.
Who could honestly say at the start of last year they would think Linux would see a same-day release for a game like Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel? No one, Linux gaming improves month after month with not just the number, but the quality of games we are seeing.
We are a small platform, and no one should think that pumping out a Linux version is suddenly going to make them rich. It's all about understanding the market, we pay well for good-quality games that are fun to play. We are still starving for certain game genre's like MMORPG's or more realistic shooters, to which we have hardly any.
Porting games to Linux can also help to make your code cleaner, and help the overall portability of it to other platforms.
For one example, the developer of hit game “Octodad” spoke to us directly on twitter, and they mentioned that porting the game to Linux actually made it easier to bring their game to the PS4.
Valve has shown zero signs of halting their support for Linux, and SteamOS is still being worked on. Anyone who says otherwise either doesn't have all the facts from their research, or likes to help spread speculation. We have to remember that Valve is the company that has been paying developers to look into improving our drivers.
We have a very healthy list of games coming to Linux this year, and this list seems to just keep growing.
When it comes to game engines, Godot, Unity 4/5, Unreal Engine 4, CryEngine, Construct 3 and many more will/do fully support Linux games, and we imagine many more engines will support us in future too.
Next we move onto how developers have flocked to Linux, and what they have been up to.
Feral Interactive have been teasing at least two more ports for Linux on their radar, and going by that it looks like one of them will be released soon. We can be easily excited by this, as it won’t be some small indie game, but a game with a much higher budget as usual from Feral.
Some bigger developers have also ported their own in-house engines to bring their games to Linux, like Techland with their Chrome Engine that powers Dead Island and Dying Light.
Yeah, I realise Dying Light isn't an amazing example right now, but hopefully the performance will be fixed up.
We also have Virtual Programming (a touchy subject for some, I realise this), who have their eON porting technology, which has seen incredible improvements in performance, and they will most likely bring us more ports. Considering how far The Witcher 2’s port has come along, I think their next port will be pretty solid at release. Every bug fixed in their porting technology will mean that future ports will be even better at release.
Let’s not forget we have new indie games being released almost every day, and with new developers appearing constantly this is also a very healthy sign. A healthy sign for PC gaming in general, but especially good for Linux to see wave after wave of indie games announce day one support for Linux.
GDC
The Game Developers Conference is next month, and it will bring with it much more information about the new OpenGL dubbed "glNext". This next-generation API could hopefully help solve a lot of performance problems we have with OpenGL for future games on Linux.
We expect either during, or after GDC more developers will announce or release Linux ports as well. We know that Stardock has something in store for us.
Final Note
Right now is the healthiest Linux Gaming has ever been, remember that. If anyone ever claims Linux (and/or SteamOS) gaming is pointless, or dying, we hope we have given them some things to think about. Article taken from GamingOnLinux.com.
Let's get this straight, the Streaming feature of Steam and SteamOS is not the main aim of Steam Machines, but it is a complementary feature designed to help Windows gamers who can't get their entire catalogue on SteamOS right away. I've seen some writers mention the Streaming feature as if that is what SteamOS was mainly designed for, but it’s the tip of the iceberg. It’s certainly a nice feature, but there’s a lot more to Steam Machines.
Steam Machines
The main problem right now is the watered-down term "Steam Machine" thanks to the hardware manufacturers that jumped-ship early, and they released what would have been a SteamOS machine as a customized Windows machine. We can't blame them due to how long Valve has taken, and it certainly hasn't helped our cause. This doesn't mean Steam Machines will fail as soon as they arrive though, but if they do fail, we will still be fine.
It has always been my opinion that SteamOS & Steam Machines were never going to be an overnight success, and that's as simple as I can put it. They haven't even been released, but that hasn't stopped a tsunami of people claiming it's already dead!
Like all things Valve, they are taking their time, and the end results should be good for all of us.
SteamOS and Steam Machines are complementary to Linux Gaming, but they aren't Linux Gaming. Either way, Linux Gaming is strong, and will continue being strong, and here’s why.
Let's look at the games
Look at how many games Linux/SteamOS now has on Steam alone (946 going by Steam's own counter), and you have to remember this is before any official Steam Machine has ever been released. We have many more games due to be released soon, and tons more in development for our platform, it isn’t about to stop or slow down. If anything, the amount of ports we are getting is speeding up, and our many many pages of news can attest to that.
That’s just a number though, and some of the games (being honest here) are terrible mobile ports placed onto Steam with no additions, poor controls, and this leads into the next part.
We haven't had developers like Aspyr Media and Feral Interactive support us for very long, and with their commitment to our platform with their current catalogue and teased future games, we still have a lot of higher-budget games to look forward to. For the short time they have supported our platform we have already gained some massive games, and they haven’t even been supporting us for a year yet. Both of their first Linux games came to us last summer, so that’s a bit premature to call Linux/SteamOS gaming dead or dying when in the last part of 2014 we gained some huge releases.
Who could honestly say at the start of last year they would think Linux would see a same-day release for a game like Borderlands: The Pre-Sequel? No one, Linux gaming improves month after month with not just the number, but the quality of games we are seeing.
We are a small platform, and no one should think that pumping out a Linux version is suddenly going to make them rich. It's all about understanding the market, we pay well for good-quality games that are fun to play. We are still starving for certain game genre's like MMORPG's or more realistic shooters, to which we have hardly any.
Porting games to Linux can also help to make your code cleaner, and help the overall portability of it to other platforms.
For one example, the developer of hit game “Octodad” spoke to us directly on twitter, and they mentioned that porting the game to Linux actually made it easier to bring their game to the PS4.
Valve has shown zero signs of halting their support for Linux, and SteamOS is still being worked on. Anyone who says otherwise either doesn't have all the facts from their research, or likes to help spread speculation. We have to remember that Valve is the company that has been paying developers to look into improving our drivers.
We have a very healthy list of games coming to Linux this year, and this list seems to just keep growing.
When it comes to game engines, Godot, Unity 4/5, Unreal Engine 4, CryEngine, Construct 3 and many more will/do fully support Linux games, and we imagine many more engines will support us in future too.
Next we move onto how developers have flocked to Linux, and what they have been up to.
Feral Interactive have been teasing at least two more ports for Linux on their radar, and going by that it looks like one of them will be released soon. We can be easily excited by this, as it won’t be some small indie game, but a game with a much higher budget as usual from Feral.
Some bigger developers have also ported their own in-house engines to bring their games to Linux, like Techland with their Chrome Engine that powers Dead Island and Dying Light.
Yeah, I realise Dying Light isn't an amazing example right now, but hopefully the performance will be fixed up.
We also have Virtual Programming (a touchy subject for some, I realise this), who have their eON porting technology, which has seen incredible improvements in performance, and they will most likely bring us more ports. Considering how far The Witcher 2’s port has come along, I think their next port will be pretty solid at release. Every bug fixed in their porting technology will mean that future ports will be even better at release.
Let’s not forget we have new indie games being released almost every day, and with new developers appearing constantly this is also a very healthy sign. A healthy sign for PC gaming in general, but especially good for Linux to see wave after wave of indie games announce day one support for Linux.
GDC
The Game Developers Conference is next month, and it will bring with it much more information about the new OpenGL dubbed "glNext". This next-generation API could hopefully help solve a lot of performance problems we have with OpenGL for future games on Linux.
We expect either during, or after GDC more developers will announce or release Linux ports as well. We know that Stardock has something in store for us.
Final Note
Right now is the healthiest Linux Gaming has ever been, remember that. If anyone ever claims Linux (and/or SteamOS) gaming is pointless, or dying, we hope we have given them some things to think about. Article taken from GamingOnLinux.com.
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Quoting: zirloQuoting: aLlinux gaming might not hinge on steam machines specifically, but it does hinge on valve...
If they stopped pushing it right now, the inertia would take us for a while, but dont fool yourself, not for very long
I think you're right: To be honest, I think the editorial is a little misleading: Many of the examples Liam lists are only happening because Valve are acting as a catalyst and investing in Linux as a gaming platform. I think if a high-profile project of theirs like SteamMachines failed, that would be very bad for us.
But I prefer stss' more positive perspective.
How is the article misleading exactly? I'm talking just about Steam Machines, but I never stated we don't need Steam/Valve, to which I think we do and they have been fantastic for us.
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I didnt said that it was misleading myself, but I'll answer it
linux gaming will be fine and survive in the same sense linux will be fine and survive. As long as people is willing to compile it and run it and pull the cart , it wont die.
Ive been playing games in linux for about 10 years now... I was not very conscious as how bad the state was really. I had games I enjoyed to play. It wasnt mainstream, but linux wasnt mainstream either... so it made sense. I was happy with my not bad nvidia propietary drivers
I think we are not discussing here the survival of linux gaming, but it becoming mainstream. Theres little discussion on Linux gaming survival (imho)
linux gaming right now is 60-70 or even 80% valve pushing. Theres companies growing and joining this pushing. But thinking we would see this kind of growth without valve is fooling yourself
Theres little reason for valve to stop right now, but If they got to disappear overnight, we would ride on the inertia for a while, but forget the sheer numbers (in terms of games/engines support/people jumping platform) we are dreaming about right now.
I said already, but I dont think this hinges on steam machines, but it does hinges right now on valve itself pushing
The longer it goes, the less dependent we will be on valve. After all, they are trying to create a healthy open market for gaming without the yoke of app/stores at os level.
Its true it was improving a lot without/before valve (B.V.) but with valve numbers have gone up at least 2 orders of magnitude bigger, probably more. So it was pretty small in comparison
Its okay to calm the troupes that worry about steam machines. Ill probably buy one when they come out, but Im not worried at all about them becoming successful really. The longer that valve keeps improving the stack (directly or indirectly) and talking about linux, the longer the inertia will go. And if we are lucky it will become mainstream.
And to be honest, I dont care what others do. I selfishly want them to become popular so I get better support myself
linux gaming will be fine and survive in the same sense linux will be fine and survive. As long as people is willing to compile it and run it and pull the cart , it wont die.
Ive been playing games in linux for about 10 years now... I was not very conscious as how bad the state was really. I had games I enjoyed to play. It wasnt mainstream, but linux wasnt mainstream either... so it made sense. I was happy with my not bad nvidia propietary drivers
I think we are not discussing here the survival of linux gaming, but it becoming mainstream. Theres little discussion on Linux gaming survival (imho)
linux gaming right now is 60-70 or even 80% valve pushing. Theres companies growing and joining this pushing. But thinking we would see this kind of growth without valve is fooling yourself
Theres little reason for valve to stop right now, but If they got to disappear overnight, we would ride on the inertia for a while, but forget the sheer numbers (in terms of games/engines support/people jumping platform) we are dreaming about right now.
I said already, but I dont think this hinges on steam machines, but it does hinges right now on valve itself pushing
The longer it goes, the less dependent we will be on valve. After all, they are trying to create a healthy open market for gaming without the yoke of app/stores at os level.
Its true it was improving a lot without/before valve (B.V.) but with valve numbers have gone up at least 2 orders of magnitude bigger, probably more. So it was pretty small in comparison
Its okay to calm the troupes that worry about steam machines. Ill probably buy one when they come out, but Im not worried at all about them becoming successful really. The longer that valve keeps improving the stack (directly or indirectly) and talking about linux, the longer the inertia will go. And if we are lucky it will become mainstream.
And to be honest, I dont care what others do. I selfishly want them to become popular so I get better support myself
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oldrocker99 Feb 21, 2015
As Maximum PC showed a year or so ago, one can build one's very own Steam Machine from low-end off-the-shelf parts, which is what the magazine is all about, anyway. Some of the proposed Steam Machines are small form-factor boxes; maybe a MintBox would do the job.
I mean, any Linux PC needs only the Steam Controller to make it a Steam Machine anyway, as it appears to be to me. Now that Streaming Play is working, it does look as though we're already 90% there.
I mean, any Linux PC needs only the Steam Controller to make it a Steam Machine anyway, as it appears to be to me. Now that Streaming Play is working, it does look as though we're already 90% there.
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[Linux] tayshady Feb 21, 2015
If Steam Machines die then we'll barely get any AAA games, no AAA games = may as well be dead.
If you're content with only indie games that's okay, but many including myself aren't. Steam Machines is one of the biggest reasons we have so many games. Instead of putting Valve to the side and saying we did it, we should all be pushing for SteamOS's success and putting Steam Machines front and center for Linux gaming.
Let's make one thing clear, the Linux community didn't revive itself on it's own. Valve had a huge role in helping us, if you can't be grateful for that then Linux gaming is doomed to fail again. Companies like Aspyr ADMIT that the reason they're porting to Linux is because of SteamOS! If Steam Machines fail mark my words momentum for Linux gaming will come to a halt and we'll get nothing but a trickle of indie games.
If you're content with only indie games that's okay, but many including myself aren't. Steam Machines is one of the biggest reasons we have so many games. Instead of putting Valve to the side and saying we did it, we should all be pushing for SteamOS's success and putting Steam Machines front and center for Linux gaming.
Let's make one thing clear, the Linux community didn't revive itself on it's own. Valve had a huge role in helping us, if you can't be grateful for that then Linux gaming is doomed to fail again. Companies like Aspyr ADMIT that the reason they're porting to Linux is because of SteamOS! If Steam Machines fail mark my words momentum for Linux gaming will come to a halt and we'll get nothing but a trickle of indie games.
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Steam Machines may fail "for now", I wouldn't be surprised about that. But on the long-run, with the engines supporting it etc, we'll definitely see a even increased number of games supporting it. And if it's not too much effort anymore like porting whole engines, why would a developer miss out even one percent of sales (which can be a pretty huge number and hard cash too). Then there will be a market for steam machines running SteamOS too, before that I don't have much hope for it. And yes, not being able to play older titles may have a huge impact as well, but we'll see what and if Valve thinks to do something about it.
But what is there is be SteamOS as reference platform for developing and testing. Seriously, they may be able to test and support a handful of distros, but it is simply impossible to do for [all]. Having SteamOS as reference platform is definitely a benefit, and I certainly hope Valve keeps up that effort for the sake of the developers.
But what is there is be SteamOS as reference platform for developing and testing. Seriously, they may be able to test and support a handful of distros, but it is simply impossible to do for [all]. Having SteamOS as reference platform is definitely a benefit, and I certainly hope Valve keeps up that effort for the sake of the developers.
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Quoting: liamdaweQuoting: zirloQuoting: aLlinux gaming might not hinge on steam machines specifically, but it does hinge on valve...
If they stopped pushing it right now, the inertia would take us for a while, but dont fool yourself, not for very long
I think you're right: To be honest, I think the editorial is a little misleading: Many of the examples Liam lists are only happening because Valve are acting as a catalyst and investing in Linux as a gaming platform. I think if a high-profile project of theirs like SteamMachines failed, that would be very bad for us.
But I prefer stss' more positive perspective.
How is the article misleading exactly? I'm talking just about Steam Machines, but I never stated we don't need Steam/Valve, to which I think we do and they have been fantastic for us.
In addition to what aL wrote, I'd like to add that by "misleading", I didn't mean "wrong". I think we mostly agree regarding the bigger picture. The article, however, could lead to the impression that all of those games would have been ported to Linux no matter what, which we know isn't true.
As you put it in the article, "It's all about understanding the market (...)" and companies that develop games for Linux do so to get a share of that growing market. If it weren't for Valve's efforts, it would stagnate and be unattractive to most publishers and developers. As you rightly pointed out "SteamOS and Steam Machines are complementary to Linux Gaming, but they aren't Linux Gaming." However, those are among the most important things Valve does to extend the market, so imho their success is crucial for the coming years. If SteamMachines failed, everything would grow a lot slower than it could.
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autonomouse Feb 22, 2015
I never really understood all of this 'dead on arrival' business. I guess it's just the product of an open development approach where people are free to try the beta and give feedback as it's being built. Replace 'Valve', 'Steam Machine' and 'Linux' with 'Sony', 'Playstation 3' and 'FreeBSD', respectively, and all this talk of it being bound to fail because developers won't support that particular operating system just sounds a bit silly.
I appreciate that Sony has been in the game a while, and I've no idea if the PS4 is still based on FreeBSD (and can't even be bothered to google despite the fact that it'd probably be quicker to do so than write this sentence) but I reckon that if any big company wanted to drum up support for their new console, people wouldn't be complaining that it might fail because of its operatign system. As long as it supports certain standards(such as OpenGL), they'd be all over it.
No, I fear the only reason there's so much doubt is simply because Valve is making their development (and their mistakes) out in the open. This is a better way of doing it, it will lead to a better product and the world needs to catch up.
I appreciate that Sony has been in the game a while, and I've no idea if the PS4 is still based on FreeBSD (and can't even be bothered to google despite the fact that it'd probably be quicker to do so than write this sentence) but I reckon that if any big company wanted to drum up support for their new console, people wouldn't be complaining that it might fail because of its operatign system. As long as it supports certain standards(such as OpenGL), they'd be all over it.
No, I fear the only reason there's so much doubt is simply because Valve is making their development (and their mistakes) out in the open. This is a better way of doing it, it will lead to a better product and the world needs to catch up.
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A few different reactions. First, I'm confident the Steam Machines will be along. No idea how well they'll succeed, but Valve and Gabe seem to have long time horizons on their major projects; a delay is just that, a delay while they get their ducks in a row. And the negative articles don't bother me. In something like this, the old saying is true: No publicity is bad publicity. Articles that badmouth the Steam Machine sight unseen are articles that keep the Steam Machine in the public eye. No problem.
On the other hand, I'm not as confident as Mr. Dawe about the independent prospects of Linux gaming. Bottom line, the Linux desktop represents 1-2% of the desktop PC gaming market, well below Mac levels. Right now, there's Valve backing and there's a vogue for Linux ports. Is it a genuine trend or a fad? Well, in the end the question is whether ports can make money selling to Linux users. If there are zero Linux users, by definition they can't make money doing it. If there are hardly any, it boils down to costs vs. extra sales, so the costs have to be very low indeed before it's worth it. Now, game engines have moved towards porting costs being lower. But are they going to be consistently so low that 1% of the PC gaming market (not the whole gaming market, just the PC part) will really be consistently worth a port? It's iffy at best. None of this IMO has much to do with the quality of the Linux desktop itself, which by me is pretty primo; more a matter of specific historical issues relating to monopolistic practices and corporate marketing strategies.
The Humble Bundles kind of got Linux ports back on the radar a little bit, at least among indies. And the early Humble Bundles tended to sell a disproportionate amount on Linux, because Linux users were so starved for games that everyone who gamed at all on Linux leaped on them Humble Bundles like starving wolves and paid extra just to say "Thanks for thinking of us, you guys rock!" So that helped create momentum. But that effect goes away as more games get ported. I suspect there's an equilibrium level where the "Larger percentage of users buying" effect dies down enough that past that point, more ports don't get enough market share from the Linux side to make it worth while. I don't know where that level is. We may not be there yet . . . or we may be, and the only reason this many games is being ported is based on fad, developer cultural fondness for Linux, encouragement from Valve, and anticipation of a bigger Linux market soon from the Steam Machines. If some of those masking factors were to drop away, we might find the level of Linux ports would drop again to wherever that equilibrium turns out to be. And if that equilibrium is low, eventually game engines might let their support rot again, making ports pricier again and dropping the equilibrium still further.
So I think it's perhaps overoptimistic to say we don't need the Steam Machine. We need either the Steam Machine or some other source of strong Linux-as-a-PC-game-platform adoption. The iron is hot right now; Valve primarily and some other factors secondarily have nuked the chicken-and-egg problem vis-a-vis games and the Linux platform until it glows . . . for the moment. Accelerate Linux desktop adoption right now, or see successful advent of the Steam Machine as a major platform, and it could stay nuked, with larger market share leading to more ports and vice versa in a virtuous cycle. Fail to and we could end up pretty much back where we started, albeit with a nice back catalogue of games. Mind you, I could be wrong--if the cost of porting has become so cheap that doing it is a no-brainer even with very few sales. Or if the pro-Linux mindset among game developers has become so strong that it can ignore market realities on an ongoing basis.
Ultimately, sometime in the indefinite future, I do think the Linux desktop will rise no matter how this stuff works itself out right now, just as Linux has come to take over so many other spaces. And at that time the gaming issue will solve itself. But it will happen much sooner if Valve's play for a Linux gaming platform is successful.
On the other hand, I'm not as confident as Mr. Dawe about the independent prospects of Linux gaming. Bottom line, the Linux desktop represents 1-2% of the desktop PC gaming market, well below Mac levels. Right now, there's Valve backing and there's a vogue for Linux ports. Is it a genuine trend or a fad? Well, in the end the question is whether ports can make money selling to Linux users. If there are zero Linux users, by definition they can't make money doing it. If there are hardly any, it boils down to costs vs. extra sales, so the costs have to be very low indeed before it's worth it. Now, game engines have moved towards porting costs being lower. But are they going to be consistently so low that 1% of the PC gaming market (not the whole gaming market, just the PC part) will really be consistently worth a port? It's iffy at best. None of this IMO has much to do with the quality of the Linux desktop itself, which by me is pretty primo; more a matter of specific historical issues relating to monopolistic practices and corporate marketing strategies.
The Humble Bundles kind of got Linux ports back on the radar a little bit, at least among indies. And the early Humble Bundles tended to sell a disproportionate amount on Linux, because Linux users were so starved for games that everyone who gamed at all on Linux leaped on them Humble Bundles like starving wolves and paid extra just to say "Thanks for thinking of us, you guys rock!" So that helped create momentum. But that effect goes away as more games get ported. I suspect there's an equilibrium level where the "Larger percentage of users buying" effect dies down enough that past that point, more ports don't get enough market share from the Linux side to make it worth while. I don't know where that level is. We may not be there yet . . . or we may be, and the only reason this many games is being ported is based on fad, developer cultural fondness for Linux, encouragement from Valve, and anticipation of a bigger Linux market soon from the Steam Machines. If some of those masking factors were to drop away, we might find the level of Linux ports would drop again to wherever that equilibrium turns out to be. And if that equilibrium is low, eventually game engines might let their support rot again, making ports pricier again and dropping the equilibrium still further.
So I think it's perhaps overoptimistic to say we don't need the Steam Machine. We need either the Steam Machine or some other source of strong Linux-as-a-PC-game-platform adoption. The iron is hot right now; Valve primarily and some other factors secondarily have nuked the chicken-and-egg problem vis-a-vis games and the Linux platform until it glows . . . for the moment. Accelerate Linux desktop adoption right now, or see successful advent of the Steam Machine as a major platform, and it could stay nuked, with larger market share leading to more ports and vice versa in a virtuous cycle. Fail to and we could end up pretty much back where we started, albeit with a nice back catalogue of games. Mind you, I could be wrong--if the cost of porting has become so cheap that doing it is a no-brainer even with very few sales. Or if the pro-Linux mindset among game developers has become so strong that it can ignore market realities on an ongoing basis.
Ultimately, sometime in the indefinite future, I do think the Linux desktop will rise no matter how this stuff works itself out right now, just as Linux has come to take over so many other spaces. And at that time the gaming issue will solve itself. But it will happen much sooner if Valve's play for a Linux gaming platform is successful.
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