I'm always interested to see what happens with the Linux market share on Steam, especially the bigger picture. Here's an alternative look at the Linux market share on Steam.
Credit to GOL fan "hardpenguin" for his idea, to check on how the rise of "Simplified Chinese" as a market on Steam has directly affected the Linux market share. The results are—interesting.
I should state that, while obvious to some, people still get confused by all this (especially me, I'm only human after all). We are talking about percentages, not absolute numbers. We have no idea what the real numbers are behind this, only the percentages Valve give us by surveying a set of their user base.
First of all, let's take a look at what's happened to the overall Linux market share as shown by Valve in their hardware survey. It doesn't look good, but keep reading after.
As I said, that looks like an unhappy chart. Over that exact same time period, let’s look at what happened on Steam with “Simplified Chinese” as a language in comparison with English:
Well then—that’s some big growth you’ve got there. One month can be written off as an anomaly, but the trend is clear there. So what happens when you compare what Steam shows as the overall Linux market share, against that same market share when you take out Simplified Chinese and when you’re just looking at English:
So, from our experiment here, it shows Linux is currently in a decline in terms of "overall market share" on Steam. No need to sugarcoat it or hide from it, the data is there. However, it's nothing close to how bad it may seem, given that you should obviously see how Simplified Chinese rising sharply has directly affected it, it's clear as day when you simply remove it.
To mention an important fact, Steam is not just growing in Asia, as shown by Valve's own info. Before we get people looking at the lines without Simplified Chinese and thinking Linux is going down by itself anyway. It's just that Asia has grown more rapidly than others. It's quite clearly a Windows-orientated marked too, so even if Linux has actually grown during that time, it's just been massively outpaced. The point? It's not as bad as it seems.
Something to keep in mind, that I’ve mentioned before numerous times: Steam is constantly growing. We don’t know what the true numbers are, so it’s literally impossible to get the real picture. As mentioned at the start, we just don’t know what the total amount is each time they do the Steam Hardware Survey in terms of the amount of people surveyed and the total amount of registered Steam users.
The fact remains that a lower percentage for Linux one month, against a higher overall number of users, can end up as an increase in total numbers of Linux gamers on Steam. I'm not saying it is or it isn't though. For us to know if the real amount of people using Linux for gaming on Steam is higher or lower, we need Valve to release the actual numbers behind the curtains. Something many people have been repeatedly asking for.
What will be interesting to see, is how Linux bounces back once the hype around certain popular games begins to fade. I don't want to repeat what I've already said too much, but it will happen. I imagine it will be at least a year before we see that happen and how far will Linux progress behind the scenes in that time to be ready? The open source Mesa drivers have come along at a staggering pace to improve AMD performance on Linux, decent VR supporting is slowly coming along, we've got games being released all the time and more. What we need to think about, is preparing for the bubble bursting back in our favour.
This was an interesting way to spend a Saturday evening, I shall return to our normal Linux gaming news on Monday!
Note: All this data was manually gathered and sorted by me, using the data available from Valve. Credit would be appreciated it you pinch it.
Article taken from GamingOnLinux.com.
stretch611 Dec 3, 2017
QuoteWhat we need to think about, is preparing for the bubble bursting back in our favour.
The bumpy ride isn't over yet, in fact it is just beginning. Nintendo are being very kind to indie developers and encouraging them to port to the Switch. Quite a few indie devs are aiming their sites on that platform down to it being much less cluttered store front and it's dual purpose as a portable device, perfect for games such as Stardew valley. The switch (is it linux based ?)even got AAA PC title Doom albeit with reduced graphics using Vulkan.. Linux not in sight.
https://gonintendo.com/stories/295934-indie-devs-discuss-what-attracted-them-to-switch
They are making bank and have a huge captive audience.
This has been a problem for Linux ever since Consoles went X86 PC hardware and are now basically Windows/BSD PC's in a console case. Just as Linux/SteamOS was around the corner Devs were starting to look the way valve was pointing and then all of a sudden it became much more lucrative ( and easy down to better engine / middleware support) to develop for Consoles on a stable target platform.. press a button and export to 90million users without the need to learn a whole new console architecture like the old days.
I have witnessed many Linux promised games take a back seat to their console counterparts where previously Linux was logically next on the list ( Mac has fared even worse )
So with this in mind apparently Microsoft has some thing big planned for indie devs next year to compete. AAA game space is shrinking, even EA said so themselves.
So there is Xboxone/xboxoneX , PS4/PS4k , Windows10, Switch, then for many devs Andriod & IOS.. Somewhere down the Line is Linux and it makes very little sense right now to really invest hard on the platform. Not pointless of course i belive it is growing but it is going to take some genuine support and marketing from Valve to get this moving again.. perhaps even decent GOG galaxy support.
Im still going to put my money into Linux & use it for computing but i can't say im not tempted by the current crop of consoles ^_^
Who knows, with better drivers & VR, valve might make a SteamOS 2.
Last edited by on 4 December 2017 at 3:52 pm UTC
Quoting: sarmadThat's still not good, considering that China is the future biggest market. This chart means Linux is completely ignoring the Chinese market. Also, the non-Chinese market share is still going down.
from what I've read in the past, it's more to do with how Chinese have not taken to Linux that well. many even down play Linux more-so with misinformation. In the last 5 to 6 years that view has been changing thanks to Android and a few developers that have been working on Chinese language for Ubuntu Kylin and the mostly Chinese developed distro Deepin.
in order for Linux to be available for Simplified Chinese someone has to be willing to do the translations. plus China has been so ingrained to use windows that pirated copies of windows 7 runs rampant from what I've read in the past. I honestly don't know how much of that has been true. but considering that many don't have windows 10 yet, since it is a free upgrade, then they most likely don't have the MS genuine approval for the free upgrade.
one thing that could flip windows on it's ear though, is if we could get more Linux adoption to China along with key games that are real popular in China ported properly for best performance. it's an interesting idea.
Quoting: neowiz73plus China has been so ingrained to use windows that pirated copies of windows 7 runs rampant from what I've read in the past. I honestly don't know how much of that has been true. but considering that many don't have windows 10 yet, since it is a free upgrade, then they most likely don't have the MS genuine approval for the free upgrade.
There's a quote from Bill Gates himself about that:
QuoteAbout 3 million computers get sold every year in China, but people don't pay for the software. Someday they will, though. As long as they are going to steal it, we want them to steal ours. They'll get sort of addicted, and then we'll somehow figure out how to collect sometime in the next decade.
Speech at the University of Washington, as reported in "Gates, Buffett a bit bearish" CNET News (2 July 1998)
also
Quote"It's easier for our software to compete with Linux when there's piracy than when there's not." -Bill Gates, Fortune Magazine, July 17 2007
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Bill_Gates
Quoting: sarmadThis chart means Linux is completely ignoring the Chinese market.It's more that the Chinese market is ignoring Linux. Because, as adamhm says, nobody's bothering that much about Microsoft's copyright over there.
Quoting: meggermanIm still going to put my money into Linux & use it for computing but i can't say im not tempted by the current crop of consoles ^_^I'm not. And I did all of my gaming between about 2005 and 2015 on console.* Seriously, there are some titles I'd like to see on Linux, but it's not like I'm running short of games here. Maybe when I can pick one up second-hand for under 100GBP I might think about it, but not right now.
*Mind you, if the PC Master Race had been a thing back in the '80s, that would have been me to a “T”. Or not. If there was one thing we looked down on more than consoles back then, it was “IBM” games. CGA graphics, man...
QuoteAbout 3 million computers get sold every year in China, but people don't pay for the software. Someday they will, though. As long as they are going to steal it, we want them to steal ours. They'll get sort of addicted, and then we'll somehow figure out how to collect sometime in the next decade.
Speech at the University of Washington, as reported in "Gates, Buffett a bit bearish" CNET News (2 July 1998)
Weird part is that they are paying for software (at least for games like pubg).
Boogiepop_Phantom Dec 3, 2017
QuoteWeird part is that they are paying for software (at least for games like pubg).This speech is 20 years old. Now there are lots of well off Chinese who can pay for their OS and games.
Quoting: sarmadThat's still not good, considering that China is the future biggest market. This chart means Linux is completely ignoring the Chinese market.That seems like an odd way to look at it (unless you mean that more game devs that port to Linux should also localize to Chinese). There's virtually no one that would profit from championing Linux adoption in the Chinese market (or any other market) from a commercial standpoint, unless you're a company that lives exclusively off of Linux--and how would a single company make Linux popular in the mainstream? The whole ecosystem is community-driven, so it's not so much a matter of targeting or ignoring markets, but of volunteers in those regions hearing about Linux, becoming passionate about it, contributing to it and spreading the word/software.
I think the contrast between English-only and All but Chinese speaks volumes in that regard, compared to the very slight difference between All languages and All but Chinese. It means that adoption in China is slightly less than the world average, while adoption in English-speaking countries is twice as high as that same average. Considering Linux originated in the West and is primarily developed in English, that comes as little surprise. And it means that Steam growing in any regions where English isn't the main language will lead to lower Linux market shares (barring any other countries where Linux is comparatively strong, if there are any).
I just don't see anyone investing money into growing Linux use in the Asian market anytime soon, so any progress we make there would have to be organic. There needs to be enough devs and translators to fully support a locale for potential users in that region to have a chance to bite and stay hooked. Usable Linux software shrinks significantly if you take English out of the equation (as well as community support), and for a vast number of people, that's a deal breaker.
Quoting: ageresThe most popular Steam games in China are Windows-only GTA V and PUBG, so even if there are millions of Linux users in China, they see no point joining Steam. Maybe if these games got Linux versions, we would see growth of Linux market share because of Chinese Linux users.
These games are also very popular outside China. In the past, CS had the omnipresence of PUBG. Now we see the old chicken or the egg dilemma. Valve had bridged that for a while. Unfortunately, the market has never really accepted it.
I think it will only change fundamentally when cloud gaming like Playstation Now becomes more widespread. Linux will undoubtedly play a more important role, as companies like Valve would otherwise become completely dependent on Microsoft. But with cloud gaming it doesn't really matter what you use as a client system.
Quoting: 1xokThese games are also very popular outside China.I mean, there are very few games popular in China. An average Chinese Steam account has GTA V, PUBG, CSGO/Dota and nothing else.
But without big games of the top 5 played on Steam (like PUBG ?), will it be a big rebound ?
I take my games from, in order : Steam (less and less), itchio (more and more), Humble, Dev's websites, random Bundles like Fanatical
The fact is that I want to install next ubuntu 18/04 which will replace xorg by wayland ( as I understand ? ), so I play on my dual boot windows yet.
Otherwise, last year I buy so many games, I think I wasn't the only one with that game bulimia.
This year I realise that I play less than I could believe, so I bought less games.
Also It wasn't a great year to linux ports as was last one.
I still have a wish list, and many of those games in are windows only.
Hopefully wine team continue their good work
Nice reflection, I like these investigations.
Best regards.
However, remember the whole "Firewall of China" thing? An OS that gives full control to the user might be heavily frowned upon by the rulers in China. People have been put in jail for less over there.
Mountain Man Dec 3, 2017
Quoting: meggermanTo be honest, the Switch is probably going to be my next big gaming purchase.QuoteWhat we need to think about, is preparing for the bubble bursting back in our favour.
The bumpy ride isn't over yet, in fact it is just beginning. Nintendo are being very kind to indie developers and encouraging them to port to the Switch. Quite a few indie devs are aiming their sites on that platform down to it being much less cluttered store front and it's dual purpose as a portable device, perfect for games such as Stardew valley. The switch (is it linux based ?)even got AAA PC title Doom albeit with reduced graphics using Vulkan.. Linux not in sight.
https://gonintendo.com/stories/295934-indie-devs-discuss-what-attracted-them-to-switch
They are making bank and have a huge captive audience.
Quoting: Mountain ManTo be honest, the Switch is probably going to be my next big gaming purchase.
Probably the same here ^_^
Quoting: Boogiepop_PhantomQuoteWeird part is that they are paying for software (at least for games like pubg).This speech is 20 years old. Now there are lots of well off Chinese who can pay for their OS and games.
I know that it's quite dated, but as most of Chinese seems to be using W7 instead of 10 (being the last one a free update from the former) and that Liam thesis was that this update is not happening due that most of them use a pirate copy of W7, it's clear that they are not willing to pay the price of a Windows license. So, it's not that they don't want to pay for software, it's that they cannot afford some of the prices of Windows or don't see the point of paying a Windows license (and I really agree with them if you ask me).
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