One year follow up: choo choo the train is steaming ahead at full throttle, I can confidently and conclusively say that 2018-2019 had definitely been the bookend for the recent surge of commercial games as the trend is clearly downward. Another "golden age" may arrive again in a few years with renewed interest from some yet-unknown party.

I was reminded of this by https://www.gamingonlinux.com/2020/09/borderlands-2-will-see-no-further-updates-for-linux-macos-from-aspyr-media

Windows hegemony in PC gaming is powerful and immovable, an engine driven by the fuels of ignorance, short term convenience, unshakable social inertia and a fresh new batch of millions of newbies every year.

I actually see this as more of a Valve problem than a Linux problem. Unfortunately Linux's gaming decline is more of a side effect of it being near completely controlled by Valve.

Don't get me wrong here, Valve did it the best business wise. They embraced Linux, making their client native, encouraged the use of the store for publishers, developers, and gamers. They even made steam machines to learn more about Linux and scoop up Linux programmers as well as the stream link and controller (none of which were ever intended as serious commercial ventures).

They even extended our gaming abilities, with contributions to the kernel, drivers, etc. Then they introduced proton, which really lowered the complexity bar with wine.

So, now most of us are at the mercy of Valve. Proton has given too much competition to porting houses, so high end ports might decline. What dev can argue with free after all? Proton is great, but how long till it joins the like of all those other past iniatives? It's only justification to exist outside an experience venture is that it brings in enough purchases of windows games on Linux platforms to make money.

I doubt they would turn it off, but if it's not making money I can see the updates stopping.

I'd still think we are in a golden age. Valve and the rest of the world is slowing down, it's can't be fast forever. I'd say the end would be when the porting houses stop and Valve gives up on proton.

Last edited by denyasis on 12 September 2020 at 6:00 pm UTC

Quoting: denyasisI'd still think we are in a golden age. Valve and the rest of the world is slowing down, it's can't be fast forever. I'd say the end would be when the porting houses stop and Valve gives up on proton.

I don't think Valve will ever drop it.
The costs are very low in comparison (only my guess, but compare the numbers of employees working on wine and Proton etc. with large software companies) and Valve is veery rich.
And Gaben comes from Microsoft so he knows the "devil from inside", I think his strategy is to keep Microsoft at check and for now it is kind of working.
Microsofts attempt to include Linux is both a prove for the potencial power of linux and also for Microsoft taking it seriously now.
Of course this doesn't mean that Microsoft will not try to throw sticks into Linux legs, but if they are clever enough they might have realized by now, that significant numbers of people are sick of them.
If even Republicans think about tightening Anti-Trust laws, I would be cautious in microsofts position.

Regarding the future of Gaming on Linux, I think there are some main points to consider:

1. Open Source is something everyone can profit from (that's the reason it is working now), so if big players (whatever companies those might be, maybe computer & hardware manufacturers etc.) would decide that they have enough of Microsoft, the shift to Linux might happen very fast.

2. DRM: Imo this is the main point against Open Source right now.
Especially the big companies (EA, Ubisoft etc.) are looking for ways to maximize their profit and some potencial directions of this are tightening the control over Games even more (e.g. restricting the Time and Content of Games playable; enforcing InGame-Stores even more etc.).
Some of this we can already see: Online-Servers are shut down just very few years after Release etc.
On an OpenSource system this tight control is not so easily possible.

3. Cloud-Gaming: While behind the scenes it could mean a big push for Linux, it will certainly not be a good thing for "free" gaming (which means: buying a Game and do with it what you want (playing whenver and in whatever way you want, Modding, Emulators etc.)).

4. Mobile Gaming: A very similar topic to cloud gaming, while it uses Linux behind the scenes (at least on Android), in the front you can't see any positive benefits of it.
Mobile is a perfect business model for Google and Apple, do almost nothing and earn money through big percentage (30%!) in their stores.

5. Engines: While Proton, DXVK and all that stuff is great, there is still a lack in native implementations of Games on Linux.
While some engines support Linux or at least Graphics technologies like Vulkan, others don't support it.
Imagine a developer could simply develop something for both Linux and Windows, without the need to change code for Linux compatibility.
I am no expert, but while it can't be too complicated to port things to Linux (because otherwise Feral Interactive & Aspyr Media would not be able to port things so "easily"), it still seems to be complicated enough for developers to shy away from it.

So all in all, it will depend on the will of big players whether Linux Gaming will see a brighter future or not.
The only positive point in a further niche position of linux is probably, that right now, we are flying a bit under the radar, in terms of companies trying to destroy all efforts of "emulation".

Last edited by dr_jekyll on 12 September 2020 at 7:31 pm UTC

Quoting: denyasisI actually see this as more of a Valve problem than a Linux problem. Unfortunately Linux's gaming decline is more of a side effect of it being near completely controlled by Valve.

This was always the danger of having only one company genuinely interested in promoting and improving gaming on Linux. Other developers said, "Eh, we'll give it a try," but they were never wholly vested in it and saw it as more trouble than it was worth. Linux gaming is better than it has ever been, but it feels like it could easily collapse overnight.

There is still native ports being produced, just not from the majority of AAA game companies, which have never cared about the Linux platform.

Last edited by Jared on 13 September 2020 at 6:21 pm UTC

[quote=Mountain Man
This was always the danger of having only one company genuinely interested in promoting and improving gaming on Linux.[/quote]
I agree we need more diversity. Valve has done very well poisoning the well, so to speak, towards other services, mostly by raising the bar in terms of quality of access to games. Take GOG for example. Many people disparage it for lack of a client (most likely comparing it to Steam), despite that one of their main selling points (DRM free) would seemingly appeal strongly to the Linux audience. Simply, we've been spoiled somewhat by Valve, which makes it a lot harder for competing services.

Quoting: dr_jekyllI don't think Valve will ever drop it.(Proton)

You raise some very good points there, although, I think I have a more pessimistic view:
We're what, 1% of users, so reasonable to assume we're 1% of the revenue stream, no? Even if the average Linux gamer spent double, we'd only be 2%.

I see Proton filling 2 possible roles. First, as a source of profit. For that to work, our purchases would likely need to cover the cost of future development. The obvious concern if that should it become unprofitable, there is little reason to maintain it. That brings us to the second role.

Secondly, Proton, might not be a source of profit, but serve an experiential or strategic purpose. You can use it to hire Linux game industry talent, thus starving the competition and slowing their efforts. You can use it for R&D for streaming, game engines, etc, porting the knowledge gained into more profitable projects. You can also use it for training for programmers to get more familiar with Linux for future projects. You can also use it as corporate training. Give newer managers and executives real world training with little risk, after all even if they screw up, Valve is only risking 1% revenue. The concern here is that this may be a more "pet project" type of status, meaning it could be abandoned when something else interesting comes along.

I like Proton and everything, but I have trouble thinking the leadership has any interest in Linux other than what they benefit from it. I doubt they'll keep it going once benefit is gone.

Quoting: denyasisWe're what, 1% of users, so reasonable to assume we're 1% of the revenue stream, no? Even if the average Linux gamer spent double, we'd only be 2%.

1% still means millions dollars. I'm sure Proton is profitable for Valve right now. What are their expenses, salaries for few guys working on DXVK and Proton?

With Windows there’s also just one company genuinely interested in promoting it and that’s MS. All the other companies just follow suit because that’s where the consumers are.

Linux has no company backing it as a whole. Red Hat does their thing in their niche (multi-billion dollar though it may be) and does nothing outside of it. Valve stepped in to take care of another slice of the pie and they’ve had great success, even if it’s not enough to challenge the monopoly MS has.

Marketing clout is Linux’s single weakest point.

Quoting: damarrinMarketing clout is Linux’s single weakest point.

Worth it though, if the alternative is being less open and collaborative.

Quoting: tuubi

Quoting: damarrinMarketing clout is Linux’s single weakest point.

Worth it though, if the alternative is being less open and collaborative.

I disagree, Linux totally needs to grow its market share to be trully viable as a PC OS, I'd say 10% should be enough, and it needs marketing for that.